Apart from scientific viewpoint of space, there is an increasing interest for new ventures like space entertainment and space tourism. Affordable space access is essential for the development of new space business, especially space tourism. Properly designed Reusable Launch Vehicles hold promise for low-cost access to space. Financing research and development of Reusable Launch Vehicles requires public or private investors. Investors are only interested in supporting Reusable Launch Vehicle developments, if there is a guarantee that they earn acceptable benefit returns in terms of revenue, prestige, advertising or security at an acceptable risk.
Thus, the analysis performed results in a scenario for mass space tourism flights, which attempts to satisfy operator's, passenger's and public's perceived needs and preferences by a systematical approach. The focal point of the investigation is closing the gap between today's "pioneer space tourism" and possible future's "mass space tourism". This might be realized (1) by increasing public space awareness, (2) by operating suborbital vehicles for semi-regular flights and (3) by operating orbital vehicles for regular flights during a period of 70 years. Assumed passenger demand may open a new market with an annual turnover of $10 billion within the frame of this representative scenario.

Robert A. Goehlich was born in Berlin, Germany, in 1975. He studied Aerospace Engineering at the Technical University Berlin from 1996 to 2000 and received his Ph.D. in 2003. His investigations are focused on cost engineering for reusable space transportation systems and strategies to realize space tourism.
In 1999, he worked at the Israel Institute of Technology, Haifa, Israel, investigating pollutant emission models for computer-aided preliminary aircraft design. In 2000, he conducted his master’s thesis addressing the feasibility of space tourism at the University of Washington, Seattle, USA. At the National Aerospace Laboratory, Tokyo, Japan, he examined the economical performance of a Reusable Launch Vehicle concept, in 2001. He stayed for 3 months in 2002 at Astrium/EADS, Kourou Spaceport, French Guiana to consider a program proposal for a tourist reusable launch fleet operated from Kourou Spaceport.

Robert A. Goehlich
A Representative Program Model for Developing Space Tourism
ISBN 10: 3-936846-29-4
ISBN 13: 978-3-936846-29-4
183 S. 18 EUR. 2003 (Diss.)

Umschlagentwurf: Robert A. Goehlich

Abstract . . . . . vii
Acknowledgements . . . . . viii
Table of Contents . . . . . ix
List of Figures . . . . . xiv
List of Tables . . . . . xvi
List of Abbreviations . . . . . xvii
Definitions . . . . . xix
Preface . . . . . xx

1 Introduction . . . . . 1
1.1 Motivation
1.2 Historical Overview
1.3 Study Objective
1.4 Study Approach
1.5 System Architecture
1.6 Model Structure and Analytical Process

2 Space Tourism Market . . . . . 9
2.1 Definition of Space Tourism
2.2 Aspects on Space Tourism Flights
2.2.1 General
2.2.2 Beginning of Space Tourism
2.2.3 Order of Events
2.2.4 Tourist Attractions in Space
2.2.5 Space Advertising
2.2.6 Nutrition
2.3 Main Market "Space Tourists"
2.3.1 Mass Space Tourism
2.3.1.1 Terrestrial Tour (Stage 1)
2.3.1.2 Parabolic Flight (Stage 2)
2.3.1.3 High-altitude Flight (Stage 3)
2.3.1.4 Suborbital Flight (Stage 4)
2.3.1.5 Orbital Flight (Stage 5)
2.3.1.6 Orbital Flight plus Hotel Stay (Stage 6)
2.3.2 Individual Space Tourism
2.3.2.1 Orbital Flight (Stage 1)
2.3.2.2 Orbital Flight plus ISS Stay (Stage 2)
2.4 Minor Market "Satellites"
2.5 Market Demand according to Passengers
2.5.1 General
2.5.2 Market Surveys
2.5.2.1 Overview
2.5.2.2 Abitzsch
2.5.2.3 Bekey
2.5.2.4 Kelly Space & Technology
2.5.2.5 Zogby International
2.5.3 Limitations
2.5.4 Results
2.6 Market Supply according to Manufacturers
2.7 Market Stimulation by Space Travel Agencies
2.7.1 Space Adventures
2.7.2 Incredible Adventures
2.7.3 Spacetopia
2.8 Market Support by Organizations
2.8.1 X Prize Foundation
2.8.2 Space Transportation Association
2.8.3 Space Tourism Society
2.8.4 ShareSpace Foundation
2.8.5 Japanese Rocket Society
2.9 Assumptions for World Trends
2.10 Results

3 Selection of Candidate Vehicles . . . . . 31
3.1 Evaluation Procedure
3.2 Determining an Optimized Vehicle Model
3.2.1 Method of Paired Comparison
3.2.1.1 General
3.2.1.2 Example
3.2.1.3 Applications and Limitations
3.2.2 Defining Design Features and Characteristics
3.2.3 Criteria of Technical Feasibility
3.2.3.1 Definition
3.2.3.2 Qualitative Evaluation
3.2.3.3 Quantitative Evaluation
3.2.4 Criteria of Economical Feasibility
3.2.4.1 Definition
3.2.4.2 Qualitative Evaluation
3.2.4.3 Quantitative Evaluation
3.2.5 Criteria of Political Feasibility
3.2.5.1 Definition
3.2.5.2 Qualitative Evaluation
3.2.5.3 Quantitative Evaluation
3.2.6 Results
3.2.6.1 Integrated Valuation of Feasibility for Suborbital Vehicles
3.2.6.2 Integrated Valuation of Feasibility for Orbital Vehicles
3.3 Selecting proposed Vehicle Concepts
3.3.1 Pre-selection
3.3.1.1 General
3.3.1.2 Method
3.3.1.3 Results
3.3.2 Final Selection
3.3.2.1 General
3.3.2.2 Method
3.3.2.3 Results
3.4 Results

4 Model of a Program Scenario . . . . . 51
4.1 Three Step Program
4.2 Step One: Increasing Public Space Awareness
4.2.1 General
4.2.2 Approach
4.3 Step Two: Realizing Suborbital Flights
4.3.1 General
4.3.2 Flight Profile
4.3.3 Vehicle
4.3.4 Passenger Module
4.3.5 Mass Characteristics
4.4 Step Three: Realizing Orbital Flights
4.4.1 General
4.4.2 Flight Profile
4.4.3 Vehicle
4.4.4 Passenger Compartment
4.4.5 Mass Characteristics
4.5 Phases of System Realization
4.6 Cost Engineering
4.6.1 Method
4.6.1.1 General
4.6.1.2 Discussion of Cost Items
4.6.2 Tools
4.6.2.1 General
4.6.2.2 TRASIM Model
4.6.2.3 Structure
4.6.2.4 Applications and Limitations
4.6.3 Business Case Study
4.6.3.1 General
4.6.3.2 Strategies for Reduced Development Cost
4.6.3.3 Strategies for Reduced Production Cost
4.6.3.4 Strategies for Reduced Operating Cost
4.7 Profitability
4.7.1 Payback Period
4.7.2 Return on Investment
4.7.3 Cost of Capital
4.7.4 Net Present Value
4.8 Program Assumptions
4.9 Results
4.9.1 Development and Production Cost
4.9.2 Launch Rate
4.9.3 Full Operational Fleet
4.9.4 Fleet Life-cycle Costs and Receipts
4.9.5 Enterprise Receipts and Cost per Launch
4.9.6 Ticket Price and Enterprise Ticket Cost
4.9.7 Cash Flow
4.9.8 Return on Investment
4.9.9 Ticket Price Strategy
4.9.10 Year of Initial Operational Capability

5 Benefit Estimation . . . . . 97
5.1 Benefit Model
5.1.1 General
5.1.2 Structure
5.1.3 Applications and Limitations
5.2 Implementation of Estimation
5.2.1 Step One: Defining Objectives and Future Trends
5.2.2 Step Two: Estimating Relative Weights
5.2.3 Step Three: Selecting State Variables
5.2.4 Step Four: Selecting Benefit Indicators
5.2.5 Step Five: Determining Benefit Indicator Values
5.2.6 Step Six: Selecting Benefit Functions
5.2.7 Step Seven: Calculating Benefit of each Sub Objective
5.2.8 Step Eight: Calculating Benefit of all Sub Objectives
5.3 Results

6 Hurdles and Opposing Forces . . . . . 107
6.1 General
6.2 Social Issues
6.2.1 Ethics
6.2.2 Health
6.2.3 Psychology
6.2.4 Envy
6.3 Institutional Issues
6.3.1 Safety
6.3.2 Environmental Pollution
6.3.3 Licensing
6.3.4 Laws
6.4 Financial Issues
6.4.1 Investors
6.5 Results

7 Conclusion and Recommendation . . . . . 117
7.1 General
7.2 Comparison of Space Launch Vehicles with Aircraft
7.3 Comparison with other Studies
7.4 Critical Comments

References . . . . . 125

Appendix A - Worldwide proposed RLV Concepts
Appendix B - Pairwise Comparison (Technical Aspects)
Appendix C - Pairwise Comparison (Economic Aspects)
Appendix D - Pairwise Comparison (Political Aspects)
Appendix E - Detailed Selection
Appendix F - Benefit Model
Curriculum Vitae